St. John’s basketball has galvanized New York ahead of its March Madness appearance. The Red Storm clinched their first outright Big East title in 25 years. Rick Pitino and his crew will be carrying Queens and the entire Empire State on their back for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.
St. John’s enters comfortably as the No. 2 seed in the West regional. The Big East champs are facing a first time tourney qualifier known for a unique trash can superstition.
But No. 15 seed Omaha could send brackets into the garbage. While St. John’s will be considered a massive favorite to beat the Mavericks, the Red Storm comes with flaws. The kind that sounds off the upset alarm ahead of this much-anticipated first round battle.
Why does St. John’s land on upset alert status before heading to the Dunkin’ Donuts Center in Providence? Time to dive into it.
Omaha will force St. John’s to shoot 3-pointers
The Red Storm ranked as one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the Big East. Let alone the nation.
St. John’s delivered a dismal 30.4% production from behind the arc. Teams that have trouble shooting from behind the arc often watch their title hopes flame out.
Mavericks head coach Chris Crutchfield produced a defense that allowed only 34.6% from three-point land. They recently surrendered 28.6% to St. Thomas for the Summit League title. Best believe Crutchfield will attempt to force the Red Storm to go long, which isn’t their game.
Omaha is skilled at rebounding
Pitino built a Red Storm team that emphasizes rebounding and defense. The former led to 40.9 rebounds per game.
Omaha, however, established itself as one of the harder teams to grab boards against.
Opponents only average 32.7 RPG facing the Mavericks — placing them third in their league. The Mavericks’ upset chances increases if they bottle to St. John’s to 34 rebounds or fewer. The Red Storm lost to Georgia, Baylor, Creighton and Villanova in settling for either 33 or 34 boards.
Omaha hasn’t surrendered 85 points in nearly a month
Crutchfield’s defense has flipped a switch in the past month.
Omaha last surrendered 85 points on Feb. 22 — which was still a Mavericks win over South Dakota. They’ve bottled opponents to 75 points or fewer.
Now Omaha faces a team averaging more than 78 PPG. The Mavericks have a chance if they keep the game close.
St. John’s has struggled against guard play
Villanova upset St. John’s with three guards hitting double figures in points. Baylor pulled a similar feat in its early season stunner of the Red Storm.
Omaha brings three guards who score more than nine points a game: Lance Waddles (9.1), Tony Osburn (12.2) and JJ White (13.7). Granted, the Mavericks want the ball going to top scorer Marquel Sutton at forward (19.1 points per contest).
St. John’s already saw its own guard RJ Luis struggle early in the Big East title game. Luis eventually dropped 21 of his 27 points in the second half. Luis and Kadary Richmond are the lone guards who average in double figures. But it’ll be a long night if St. John’s fails to contain the guards.
Rick Pitino has history on his side
College basketball historians and fans will remember Pitino for building tournament runs and two national championships at Kentucky and Louisville. But he’s got a skid on his side he must snap.
Pitino never surpassed the first round at his previous stop of Iona. He hasn’t gone past the second round in a decade either. Many will bring up his past early round failures ahead of the tournament.
Then there’s the possibility of facing old nemesis Bill Self of Kansas or John Calipari at Arkansas in round two. That could get to his psyche and ruin his focus on Omaha.
St. John’s looks superior compared to Omaha on paper and off roster talent. But Pitino and the Red Storm are facing a well-coached defensive machine that’ll test them throughout the night.
The post Why St. John’s basketball is on upset alert in 2025 NCAA Tournament appeared first on ClutchPoints.
