Vanderbilt struggled down the stretch before the tournament, while Saint Mary’s has been consistent on their way to a tournament berth. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a prediction and pick for Vanderbilt-Saint Mary’s.
Vanderbilt is 20-12 this season but has lost three straight games entering this game. It has notable wins against Tennessee, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, and Missouri. They also have notable losses to Mississippi State, Missouri, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Tennessee, Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, and Texas. The key for the Commodores is Jason Edwards, and he needs to have a massive game against the Gaels.
Saint Mary’s is 28-5 this season, with wins against Nebraska, Utah, and Gonzaga twice. They also lost to Arizona, Boise, Utah, San Francisco, and Gonzaga. Augustas Marciulionis and Paulinas Murauskas have been the biggest keys for the Gaels this year. Saint Mary’s is steady and can control the tempo and pace against a Vanderbilt team that has been all over the place.
Here are the Vanderbilt-Saint Mary’s College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Vanderbilt-Saint Mary’s Odds
Vanderbilt: +4.5 (-120)
Moneyline: +142
Saint Mary’s: -4.5 (-102)
Moneyline: -172
Over: 135.5 (-115)
Under: 135.5 (-105)
How to Watch Vanderbilt vs. Saint Mary’s
Time: 3:15 pm ET/12:15 pm PT
TV: TruTV
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Why Vanderbilt Will Cover The Spread/Win
Vanderbilt’s offense has been in the top half of the SEC during this season. They score 79.6 points per game, have a 45.1% field goal percentage, and shoot 32.5% from three-point range. They are also 30th in adjusted offense in KenPom with a rating of 118.
Three Commodores are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Jason Edwards leads the team in scoring with 17 points per game. He has easily been the best player on the team. AJ Hoggard is also the team leader in assists, averaging 4.7 per game. They are averaging 14.1 assists per game as a team this year.
The Vanderbilt offense has been solid and consistent this year, even in SEC play. The Vandy offense has the tools to play well, but this is a tough matchup against Saint Mary’s and their elite defense.
Why Saint Mary’s Will Cover The Spread/Win
Vanderbilt’s defense has been inconsistent this year and is one of the worst in the SEC. They allow 74.8 points per game, 46% from the field and 36.9% from behind the arc. They are also 84th in adjusted defense on KenPom and have a rating of 101.8.
The frontcourt has been hit or miss for Vanderbilt. Devin McGlockton has been the best player and leads the team in rebounding and blocks with 7.9 and 1.1 per game, respectively. Finally, their on-ball defense has been a bright spot. Four Vandy players average at least one steal, and Tyler Tanner and Chris Manon are tied for the team lead in steals with 1.7 per game.
This defense has been bad, and they will have issues defending a Saint Mary’s offense that prides itself on efficiency and a slow tempo. The Gaels also have a size advantage over Vanderbilt in this game.
Saint Mary’s offense has been solid but unimpressive this season. They score 73.5 points per game, have a 45.5% field goal percentage, and a 32.3% three-point shooting percentage. They are ranked 57th in KenPom in adjusted defense and have a rating of 115.3.
Three Gaels are averaging over double digits in scoring this season, with Augustas Marciulionis leading the team with 14.3 points per game. Then, Marciulionis is also the team leader in assists with 6.1 per game. They move the ball well as a team, averaging 15.5 assists per game.
Due to their defense, the Gaels have not had to be a dominant offense, but their offense gets the job done. The Gaels are deliberate, efficient, and competent on offense. That will be the difference against a Vanderbilt defense that has struggled most of the season.
Saint Mary’s defense has been excellent this season and is among the best in the tournament field. They allow 60.7 points per game, 40.8% from the field, and 30.8% from behind the arc. This defense has also jumped to eighth in KenPom in adjusted defense with a 92.2 rating.
The Gaels have a formidable frontcourt. Murauskas has been the rebounding leader, averaging eight per game. Then, Mitchell Saxen is the best shot blocker on the team, averaging 1.3 per game. The perimeter and on-ball defense have been solid but not as good as down low—two Gaels average at least one steal, with Marciulionis leading the way with 1.4 per game.
This defense is the best unit in this game, and they can completely shut down a Vanderbilt offense that has talent but has been struggling more recently. Saint Mary’s has the advantage in this game.
Final Vanderbilt-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick
Vanderbilt is limping into the tournament, having lost three straight, and the Gaels are a terrible team to try to get right against. Saint Mary’s will slow down the game and shut down Vanderbilt’s erratic offense. The Gaels win and cover to move on in the tournament.
Final Vanderbilt-Saint Mary’s Prediction & Pick: Saint Mary’s -4.5 (-102)
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