We’re back with another betting prediction and pick for the UFC Vegas 104 Main Card as we take a look at this next bout occurring in the Featherweight (145) Division. South Korea’s SeungWoo Choi will face off against Argentina’s Kevin Vallejos as the two fighters aim for an exciting performance. Check the UFC odds series for our Choi-Vallejos prediction and pick.
SeungWoo Choi (11-7) has gone 4-6 since joining the UFC roster in 2019. Following an impressive streak of three victories, he’s dropped three of his last four bouts leading into this one. He most recently fell to Steve Garcia in the first round and will be eager to bounce back in this effort. Choi stands six feet tall with a 74.5-inch reach.
Kevin Vallejos (14-1) will make his UFC debut in this fight following a 1-1 record through two appearances on Dana White’s Contender Series. After losing his first audition, he notched two regional wins and returned to DWCS with a knockout in the first round. He makes his debut as one of the card’s largest betting favorites. Vallejos stands 5-foot-7 with a 68-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Vegas 104 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Vegas 104 Odds: SeungWoo Choi-Kevin Vallejos Odds
SeungWoo Choi: +425
Kevin Vallejos: -575
Over 1.5 rounds: -140
Under 1.5 rounds: +110
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Why SeungWoo Choi Will Win
- Last Fight: (L) Steve Garcia – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 1-4
- Finishes: 6 KO/TKO
SeungWoo Choi is entering this fight following yet another loss, marking a third first-round finish over his last six fights. There’s no doubt that Choi immediately commands the center of the octagon and will throw haymakers to open the fight. While he fights at a high gear, he’s also capable of sustaining his cardio and activity through three rounds as indicative of his previous win over Jarno Errens. If Choi can dial things down and remain calm throughout the opening rounds, we could see him settle into a striking groove and display some of his elite kickboxing skills.
Against a debuting fighter in Vallejos, Choi will have experience on his side after being in this kind of spot numerous times. He’s fought names like Movsar Evloev, Youssef Zalal, Alex Caceres, and Josh Culibao, so this should come as no surprise given Vallejos’ comparative experience. If he can improve his 39% striking accuracy and bring his absorbed strikes number down from 3.12/min, he should be able to have a much better chance in this fight than the +425 betting line is indicating.
Why Kevin Vallejos Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Cam Teague – TKO (punches, R1)
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 10 KO/TKO, 2 SUB
Kevin Vallejos dropped the only loss of his career so far during his 2023 appearance on Contender Series, but the loss aged well as it came to Jean Silva who is currently undefeated in four UFC appearances. Vallejos is a devastating boxer and if he’s able to start stringing combinations together, the fight may as well be over. He walked-down Cam Teague during his second DWCS fight and finished the job inside of the first round with a barrage of punches. If he can begin to land clean against Choi, we could see another quick finish in this one.
What was most impressive about Vallejos’ DWCS win was also his constant work to the body while pressuring his opponent. He crowds the pocket and once he begins to land hooks to the body, it drops his opponents’ hands and allows him to find big shots to the head. His opponent prefers to work at range while bouncing in and out, so Vallejos will have a stern advantage if he’s able to back Choi to the fence and begin throwing heavy strikes in the pocket.
Final SeungWoo Choi-Kevin Vallejos Prediction & Pick
This has “performance of the night” written all over it as both men will be hungry for the knockout during this one. SeungWoo Choi has a tendency to give in to a chaotic brawl, but his experience and ability to strike at range could be the best path to an upset. He’s much more comfortable in a three-round environment and can make this fight close with his toughness and output. We have to give him some respect with this kind of betting value.
However, Kevin Vallejos’ style is something that matches perfectly against Choi. His opponent struggles along the fence and Vallejos is a badger when entering the pocket. His ability to walk Choi down and enter the pocket with his head movement will be the key to this fight. Vallejos has the greater power and knockout upside, so we’ll have to roll with him to get the job done. Still, I could see this fight going into the late second round or even third.
Final SeungWoo Choi-Kevin Vallejos Prediction & Pick: Kevin Vallejos (-575); OVER 1.5 Rounds (-140)
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