Norfolk State got hot and won the MEAC conference, while Florida might be the hottest team in the entire country out of the SEC. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Norfolk State-Florida prediction and pick.
Norfolk State is 24-10 this season, with its only notable win against High Point. They also have significant losses to Stanford, Grand Canyon, Baylor, and Tennessee. The Spartans have won four straight games and got red-hot in the MEAC to get to the tournament. Brian Moore Jr. makes the Spartans go, and he needs to have a monster game if they have any chance against the Gators.
Florida is 30-4 and has won six straight games. They have big wins against North Carolina, Tennessee twice, Texas, Georgia, Auburn, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Alabama twice, Ole Miss, and Missouri. Their losses also came to Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, and Georgia. Walter Clayton Jr. and Alijah Martin make the Gators go on offense, and they will be key to their tourney run.
Here are the Norfolk State-Florida College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
2025 March Madness Tournament Odds: Norfolk State-Florida Odds
Norfolk State: +28.5 (-112)
Moneyline: +4000
Florida: -28.5 (-108)
Moneyline: -30000
Over: 153.5 (-110)
Under: 153.5 (-110)
How to Watch Norfolk State vs. Florida
Time: 6:50 pm ET/3:50 pm PT
TV: TNT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why Norfolk State Will Cover The Spread/Win
Norfolk State’s offense has been solid at best this season. They score 77.3 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 48.9%, and have a three-point percentage of 33.1%. They are also 167th in KenPom in adjusted offense, with a rating of 107.2.
Three different Spartans are averaging over double digits in scoring, and Brian Moore Jr. is the scoring leader, averaging 18.4 points per game. Their ball movement has also been okay, averaging 13.9 assists per game. Christian Ings is the assists leader, with 3.2 per game, and Moore Jr. is just behind, averaging 3.1 per game.
The Spartans have a decent offense, thanks to Moore Jr., but it will be a massive issue in this game against the Gators and their defense. This is a tough matchup for the Spartans.
Why Florida Will Cover The Spread/Win
Norfolk State has struggled and has consistency issues. It allows 69 points per game, 41.3% from the field, and 33.5% from behind the arc. The defense is 215th in KenPom with a 108.7 rating.
The frontcourt has been solid at best. Jalen Myers leads the team in rebounding with 5.4 per game, and then Kuluel Mading leads the team in blocks with 1.3 per game. Their perimeter defense has been better and more reliable than their frontcourt. Three players average at least one steal, and Jaylani Darden leads the team by 1.4 per game.
The Spartans are struggling on defense, and on this side of the court, the Gators should be able to feast. Florida has one of the best offenses in the country and should take advantage of this.
Florida’s offense has been one of the best in the SEC this year, only behind Alabama in scoring. They score 85.4 points per game (4th in the country), have a 47.3% field goal percentage, and a 35.5% three-point shooting percentage. This offense has also vaulted to the top adjusted offensive unit in KenPom with a rating of 128.6.
Four Gators are averaging over double digits in scoring this season, showcasing their balance, and Clayton Jr. is the team’s best scorer, averaging 17.5 points per game. Clayton Jr. is also the team leader in assists, averaging 4.3 per game. They are a top 60 offense regarding ball movement, with the entire team averaging 15.9 assists per game, thanks mainly to their depth in the backcourt.
This offense has many different ways to beat opposing defenses, and it should be able to score successfully on the Spartans in this game to start the tourney. Norfolk State’s defense is also not trustworthy in a tournament setting.
Florida’s elite defense is also a massive reason for its success. It allows 69.2 points per game, 39.8% from the field, and 29.6% from behind the arc. This defense is also ranked ninth in KenPom with a 92.4 rating.
This frontcourt has been an underrated strength this season. Alex Condon has been a beast down low, leading the team in rebounding and blocks, averaging 7.8 and 1.4 per game, respectively. They are also one of the best rebounding teams in the country, averaging 42 per game (4th in the country). This perimeter defense has been great, too, with four different Gators averaging at least one steal. Will Richard is the steals leader, averaging 1.7 per game.
This defense has so many playmakers and should have no issues against Norfolk State. The Spartans have an offense that can score, but it will be an awful matchup against the Gators in this game.
Final Norfolk State-Florida Prediction & Pick
Norfolk State and Moore Jr. have a solid offense that should score buckets, but the Gators can come at teams in waves. Florida should wear down the Spartans and win easily. However, this spread is too big, and I think Norfolk State can cover late in this matchup when Florida takes its foot off the gas.
Final Norfolk State-Florida Prediction & Pick: Norfolk State +28.5 (-112)
The post Norfolk State vs. Florida prediction, odds, pick for Men’s March Madness 2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
