UFC Atlanta: Kamaru Usman versus Joaquin Buckley continues the main card with a fight between Michael Chiesa and Court McGee in the welterweight division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Chiesa-McGee prediction and pick.
Michael Chiesa (18-7) comes into UFC Atlanta riding a two-fight submission streak, most recently finishing Max Griffin in the third round at UFC 310 last December. Before that, Chiesa submitted Tony Ferguson in the first round, bouncing back strong after a three-fight skid. Now, Chiesa aims to extend his resurgence against Court McGee this Saturday night.
Court McGee (22-13) snapped a three-fight skid with a first-round submission win over Tim Means at UFC 307 last October, earning his first finish in nearly 15 years. Prior to that, McGee dropped a unanimous decision to Alex Morono. Now, McGee looks to build momentum against Michael Chiesa at UFC Atlanta this Saturday night.
Here are the UFC Atlanta Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC Atlanta Odds: Michael Chiesa-Court McGee Odds
Michael Chiesa: -345
Court McGee: +275
Over 2.5 rounds: -175
Under 2.5 rounds: +135
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Why Michael Chiesa Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Max Griffin – SUB R3
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 12 (12 SUB)
Michael Chiesa is poised to beat Court McGee at UFC Atlanta due to his recent resurgence and stylistic advantages. Chiesa enters the bout on a two-fight submission streak, having finished Max Griffin in the third round and Tony Ferguson in the first, signaling a return to form after a tough three-fight skid.
Chiesa’s grappling is elite, with 12 of his 18 career wins coming by submission, far surpassing McGee’s submission rate. His ability to control opponents on the ground and hunt for finishes is a significant threat, especially against McGee, who has been vulnerable to submissions and knockouts in recent years. Chiesa’s two-inch height advantage and younger age may also play a role in dictating the pace and range of exchanges.
While McGee snapped his own losing streak with a submission win over Tim Means, that was his first stoppage victory in 14 years, and he’s struggled against higher-level grapplers and finishers. Chiesa’s recent momentum, superior submission skills, and physical advantages make him the favorite to control the fight, exploit McGee’s defensive gaps, and potentially secure another finish at UFC Atlanta.
Why Court McGee Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Tim Means – SUB R1
- Last 5: 2-3
- Finishes: 11 (3 KO/TKO/8 SUB)
Court McGee has a real shot at upsetting Michael Chiesa at UFC Atlanta, thanks to his grit, veteran savvy, and recent resurgence. McGee snapped a three-fight skid with a dominant first-round submission over Tim Means, showing he still has the finishing ability and composure to capitalize on opportunities.
McGee’s relentless pressure and cardio have long been his calling cards, often wearing down opponents with volume and pace. Against Chiesa, who has struggled with consistency and suffered three straight losses before his current streak, McGee’s durability and willingness to push the action could expose any lapses in Chiesa’s defense or gas tank.
While Chiesa is a dangerous grappler, McGee’s wrestling base and experience against high-level opposition make him difficult to control on the mat. If McGee can keep the fight standing or scramble effectively, he can frustrate Chiesa and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.
At nearly 40, McGee is fighting with nothing to lose and everything to gain, and his ability to dig deep in tough moments could be the X-factor. If he brings the same intensity and opportunism he showed against Means, McGee could outlast Chiesa and pull off a hard-fought victory in Atlanta.
Final Michael Chiesa-Court McGee Prediction & Pick
Michael Chiesa vs. Court McGee at UFC Atlanta is a classic clash of grappling-heavy veterans, each seeking to extend their late-career resurgence. Chiesa enters as the betting favorite, buoyed by back-to-back submission wins over Max Griffin and Tony Ferguson, and is open about his plan to lean on his wrestling and grappling strengths. His submission game is among the best in the division, with 13 of his 20 career wins coming by tapout, and his takedown accuracy and control are expected to be key factors.
McGee, meanwhile, snapped a three-fight skid with a first-round submission of Tim Means but remains a sizable underdog. While McGee is known for his durability, pressure, and strong takedown defense (70%), he has struggled against elite grapplers and has not consistently shown the finishing ability needed to threaten someone of Chiesa’s caliber. Both fighters are in their late 30s, but Chiesa is two inches taller and appears to be the fresher athlete at this stage.
Expect McGee to make it gritty and test Chiesa’s cardio, but Chiesa’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place and his superior grappling should allow him to control the action. Michael Chiesa extends his winning streak to three in a row via decision, using his wrestling and top control to secure the win.
Final Michael Chiesa-Court McGee Prediction & Pick: Michael Chiesa (-345), Over 2.5 rounds (-175)
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