The San Francisco Giants made one of the more intriguing offseason moves by signing Justin Verlander to a one-year, $15 million deal. While Verlander’s Hall of Fame credentials are undeniable, his age and recent struggles have raised questions about what he can still contribute. At 42, Verlander is coming off a difficult 2024 season in which he posted a career-worst 5.48 ERA over 90.1 innings with the Houston Astros. However, early signs in Spring Training suggest he may still have something left in the tank.
Through his first three outings in Arizona, Verlander has shown promise, posting a 2.45 ERA over 11 innings with a 1.00 WHIP. Opposing batters have hit just .225 against him, a notable improvement from the .274 batting average they had against him last season. His fastball, once the foundation of his dominance, has remained effective, even touching 96 mph in a recent outing against the Athletics. For a pitcher nearing his mid-40s, that is a remarkable feat.
While Verlander’s early results are encouraging, there are still concerns about his long-term durability and effectiveness. Injuries plagued his 2024 campaign, leading to a diminished strikeout rate and inconsistent command. His Baseball Savant metrics, which once highlighted his elite ability to overpower hitters, showed significant declines last year. His strikeout rate dropped to 18.7%, well below his career norms, and his once-dominant swing-and-miss stuff was noticeably absent.
Justin Verlander continues to produce at whatever age
Despite these concerns, the Giants see Verlander as more than just an innings-eater. His presence provides a valuable mentorship opportunity for San Francisco’s young rotation, similar to when the franchise brought in Randy Johnson in 2009. Verlander’s leadership could be instrumental in guiding pitchers like Kyle Harrison and Mason Black, offering them insights from a pitcher who has seen and done it all at the highest level.
Verlander himself has expressed confidence that he can still be an effective starter, pointing to the adjustments he has made in his offseason training regimen. “This is for sure the best I’ve felt in the last few years,” Verlander said. “I mean, ’22 was the last time I had a healthy ramp-up.” That 2022 season, of course, saw him win his third career Cy Young Award.
Projections for Verlander’s 2025 campaign remain mixed. Some models predict a low-4.00s ERA with around 120-140 innings pitched, which would be considered a solid contribution. However, if he can continue his strong spring form into the regular season, he might exceed those expectations.
Ultimately, the Giants’ signing of Verlander was a calculated risk. If he stays healthy and performs, he could be a stabilizing force in the rotation. If he struggles or suffers another injury, San Francisco has a wealth of young pitchers ready to step up. Either way, Verlander’s final chapter will be one of the most compelling storylines for the Giants in 2025.
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