Kelvin Sampson has done as good a job as any coach in the nation with Houston basketball. The Cougars hadn’t been to the NCAA Tournament in four seasons when the former Houston Rockets assistant took over in 2014, and he’s gotten them to one Final Four, one Elite Eight, and five total Sweet Sixteens since then. They were also tied atop the AAC in the COVID-shortened 2019-20 campaign.
However, No. 1 Houston’s offense won’t allow them to win the NCAA Tournament this season. The Cougars (31-4, 19-1 Big 12) rank 22nd in national offensive efficiency, via teamrankings.com. That’s not bad, but it still pales in comparison to the other No. 1 seeds. Duke, Florida, and Auburn rank first, second, and fourth, respectively.
The flip side is that Houston has the best defense. That’s what’s gotten them this far and what will keep them in games against the heavy hitters. Still, the Blue Devils (32-3, 19-1 ACC) are third in defensive efficiency, while No. 2 St. John’s and No. 2 Tennessee are ranked second and ninth, respectively. The Cougars could face the latter program in the Elite Eight, Duke in the Final Four, and St. John’s in the National Championship.
That’s if they don’t get upset by No. 8 Gonzaga in the second round on Saturday night. The Bulldogs (26-8, 14-4 WCC) have a dangerous offense featuring two-time first-team All-ACC forward Graham Ike, who scored 17.1 points per game on 59.8 percent shooting. Additionally, senior guard Ryan Nembhard is a consistent two-way presence, leading the country with 9.8 assists and the team with 1.7 steals.
Conversely, Houston has no notable scoring threat other than third-team All-American guard L.J. Cryer, who averages 15.2 points on 41.5 percent shooting. Gonzaga ranks 16th nationally in defensive efficiency, so the Cougars are unlikely to match the scoring output they had on No. 16 SIUE in their 78-40 first-round win.
If Houston does avoid disaster on Saturday, it’ll have to face No. 4 Purdue in the Sweet Sixteen. The Boilermakers (24-11, 13-7 Big Ten) rank 10th nationally in offensive efficiency and just disposed of No. 12 McNeese State 76-62, who upset No. 5 Clemson 69-67 in the first round.
In short, the Cougars’ over-reliance on defense makes them a shaky pick to get past the Final Four.
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