Duke basketball is heading into the NCAA Tournament with as much confidence as any team in the country. The Blue Devils are coming off a dominant ACC Tournament victory after running through the conference during the regular season. Now, this group is the betting favorite heading into March and is led by perhaps the best player in the nation, Cooper Flagg. In his third season, head coach Jon Scheyer has by far his best squad in Durham, evening after making the Elite Eight last season.
Flagg came into the 2024-25 season with massive hype as the No. 1 recruit in the country. The Newport, Maine native was seen as a generational talent who was expected to lead the Blue Devils back to the top of the college basketball hierarchy again. And Flagg has done just that and more in his college career. The do-it-all forward leads the No. 1 team in the nation in points, rebounds, assists, rebounds, and steals.
Because of this, Cooper has racked up several accolades this season, including being named a Consensus First-team All-American and ACC Player of the Year. The freshman superstar is also considered a frontrunner for the National College Player of the Year award. However, Flagg is not alone when it comes to talented first-years on this roster. Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach have also been key contributors this season, alongside veteran guards Sion James and Tyrese Proctor.
Duke basketball subsequently finished the season at 31-3 overall and 19-1 in ACC play. This is the first time since 2019 that the Blue Devils have earned a No. 1 as they headline the East region. This section has formidable foes, including second-seeded Alabama, who is coming off a Final Four appearance. And then, if the Blue Devils make it to San Antonio, there are many potential juggernaut opponents that this group could run into. That being said, there are several arguments for why this team will cut down the nets. Here are our reasons why.
Why Duke will win the 2025 NCAA Tournament
Statistically, this Duke roster has all the components of a national championship winner. The Blue Devils are first in the country in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. They are the only team to rank that highly in both those categories. Another positive sign is that, on several occasions, Jon Scheyer’s team has overcome adversity in the middle of a game and shown impressive grit. That winner’s mentality was on full display in the ACC Tournament.
Cooper Flagg suffered a scary ankle injury in the middle of Duke basketball’s quarterfinal matchup against Georgia Tech. The Blue Devils recovered from this monumental loss to win their conference tournament. That included wins against NCAA Tournament teams in North Carolina and Louisville in the semifinals and finals. Flagg, therefore, may lead this squad in all major statistical categories. But these recent performances showcased that this is far from a one-man team.
Some of the hesitation behind the Blue Devils’ title chances revolves around the youth of this squad. While having a roster of several freshman superstars is always exciting, many of these teams fell short in March. Elite squads like John Wall’s Kentucky Wildcats in 2010 and Zion Williamson’s Duke team were overall No. 1 seeds, yet fell before the Final Four. Being the most talented group does not always equate to a national title in a single-elimination format.
One key to navigating the NCAA Tournament is having experienced guards who can keep a team calm in the midst of chaos. Elite backcourts have frequently led programs to surprising runs through The Big Dance. Duke basketball has a pair of poised guards in Sion James and Tyrese Proctor. The Blue Devils’ floor general was a transfer from Tulane this offseason. James has been essential to organizing the offense and being Duke basketball’s point-of-attack defender. The Sugar Hill, Georgia native was subsequently highly efficient this year and named to the ACC All-Defensive team.
Tyrese Proctor has been a starter on two NCAA Tournament runs with the Blue Devils. The junior guard was a key player on the squad that was one win away from the Final Four last season. A native of Sydney, Proctor, along with Kneuppel, gives the Blue Devils more margin for error than in the past with their ability to space the floor. Duke basketball ranks in the top 20 in three-point field goal percentage.
Overall, fans and pundits might compare this squad with Zion Williamson-led Blue Devils. However, this group shares more in common with the 2015 Blue Devils. That unit was led by a trio of elite freshmen in the starting unit (Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow, and Tyus), with a dynamic freshman off the bench (Grayson Allen) and a composed senior guard (Tyus Jones) in the backcourt.
This year’s Duke has a trio of elite freshmen starting (Cooper Flagg, Kon Kneuppel, Khaman Maluach) with a dynamic first-year off the bench (Isaiah Evans) and has an experienced backcourt (Tyrese Proctor and Sion James). The 2015 squad, of course, went on to win the national championship in what was an absolutely stacked field. This group will have to follow suit. However, outside of the youth of this squad, there is one major concern for this group heading into the tournament.
The Blue Devils’ biggest concern heading into the NCAA Tournament
It’s simple. The Blue Devils need a healthy Cooper Flagg to win the national championship. They may not need the star forward in the first round or even in the second round. But looking down the road at potential matchups against Oregon, Arizona, Alabama, or maybe a Tennessee or Houston, Flagg needs to be at full strength. In most years, any of the top eight teams in the country this season could have all been a No. 1 seed in the 68-team field. This sport simply has too much talent, parity, and depth for Duke to survive long without its best player.
As of now, Flagg’s goal is to return for Friday’s game against the winner of American and Mount St. Mary’s. He is already resuming on-court activities and seems optimistic about playing again soon.
Other concerns for the Blue Devils include not getting to the free-throw line often and not consistently generating turnovers from opponents. Should Duke basketball face an elite defensive opponent, it will be essential for Jon Scheyer’s team not to turn the ball over because it will likely not get a ton of extra possessions. That being said, the Blue Devils are solid at offensive rebounding.
Another potential concern is just the reality of the ACC Conference this year. While the league does tend to overachieve in the NCAA Tournament, the conference gave the Blue Devils few opportunities for quality wins this season. Duke basketball rarely played consecutive tournament-caliber teams, meaning the heightened competition could be an adjustment for this year’s squad. It’s not that Duke has not faced and beaten quality opponents. It’s more so that it has not consistently been as battle-tested as, for example, a program from the SEC.
However, overall, Duke basketball has as high of a ceiling as anyone in the nation. Jon Scheyer has proven to be a capable tournament coach and has a squad with the talent and experience to return this program to the heights it experienced under Mike Krzyzewski. Sometimes, the top pick is the right pick. UConn proved that last season. It may be a long road to San Antonio and a sixth national championship, but this group deserves the benefit of the doubt to cut down the nets in April.
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