We’re back with another UFC betting prediction and pick as the UFC 313 Early Prelims wrap up in the Featherweight (145) Division. We’ll see two promising prospects get after it as Brazil’s Mairon Santos takes on New Jersey’s Francis Marshall with both fighters coming in off wins. Check the UFC odds series for our Santos-Marshall prediction and pick.
Mairon Santos (14-1) will make his second UFC appearance following a win over Kaan Ofli in his debut and winning The Ultimate Fighter Season 32 tournament. He finished the fight with ground-and-pound for a TKO in the second round, so he’ll look to impress once again as the stern betting favorite in this one. Santos stands 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.
Francis Marshall (8-2) has gone 2-2 since entering the UFC in 2022. He won his most recent bout via split decision over Dennis Buzukja, coming back from back-to-back losses and re-establishing himself within the division. He’ll look for an impressive win as the betting underdog here. Marshall stands 5-foot-9 with a 72-inch reach.
Here are the UFC 313 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 313 Odds: Mairon Santos-Francis Marshall Odds
Mairon Santos: -310
Francis Marshall: +250
Over 2.5 rounds: -180
Under 2.5 rounds: +140
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Why Mairon Santos Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Kaan Ofli – TKO (left hook, R2)
- Last 5: 5-0
- Finishes: 8 KO/TKO
Mairon Santos won The Ultimate Fighter 32 season finale with a resounding TKO over runner-up Kaan Ofli in the second round. During that bout, Santos was the moderate -200 betting favorite and was a name to watch all throughout TUF’s season. He’s very progressed in terms of his striking and uses an effective range when standing across from opponents. His power is also an anomaly in this division and if he’s able to land clean, he’s more than capable of ending the fight with eight knockouts already under his belt.
Mairon Santos makes great use of his kicking game and doing so in this fight will greatly benefit given how long his limbs are and how he uses them to manage the distance. While he keeps his hands low at times, Santos does a great job of avoiding straight shots as he’s constantly weaving his head in and out of range. Look for him to be defensive against a sound striker like Marshall, but don’t be surprised if he’s constantly baiting his opponent and looking to return with his counter shots.
Why Francis Marshall Will Win
- Last Fight: (W) Dennis Buzukja – S DEC
- Last 5: 3-2
- Finishes: 1 KO/TKO, 4 SUB
Francis Marshall notched a hard-fought decision over Dennis Buzukja his last time out, the win serving as a testament to his toughness and grit during a close fight. It didn’t come easy but Marshall was able to keep his output consistent while not wavering on any of his power. It was his third fight in the last fight going to a decision, so by this point he’s conditioned to save his gas tank and expends himself very methodically over three rounds. The longer he can drag this one out, the more it will benefit his gritty striking.
Francis Marshall certainly has the advantage in UFC cage time and he’s undoubtedly seen the tougher competition compared to his opponent here. At this level, no fighter is a slouch and Marshall has the golden opportunity to stun a very inexperienced newcomer to the promotion. Look for him to stick to a particular game plan throughout the opening minutes of this fight as he tries to gauge distance and feel for this unique striking look.
Final Mairon Santos-Francis Marshall Prediction & Pick
Ultimately, this fight comes down to a striker comfortable with aiming for the knockout in Mairon Santos matching up against a much better grappler in Francis Marshall who will be looking to add another submission victory to his resume. On the feet, we have to give the striking edge to Santos due to his power and ability to mix in leg kicks to all three levels.
However, we’ve seen Francis Marshall in three-round wars and he has a knack for dragging opponents into deep waters with his forward pressure and threat of the takedowns. Landing just under three per fight at 41% accuracy, it’ll be interesting to see how long until he shoots for a leg in this fight.
Still, we have to side with the precise and devastating striking of Mairon Santos to give him an edge during this fight. He’s been hitting the mark over his last couple of fights and I expect a similar result out of him in this one. Let’s roll with Santos to earn an early knockout in this one.
Final Mairon Santos-Francis Marshall Prediction & Pick: Mairon Santos (-310); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+140)
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