When you’re up three with the game on the line, coaches face a crucial decision—do you trust your defense to get a stop, or do you take matters into your own hands by fouling and eliminating the chance for a game-tying three? For Cleveland Cavaliers head coach Kenny Atkinson, the choice is clear: if advanced metrics say it’s safe, you foul. Every time.
It’s a philosophy grounded in logic. Fouling in that situation prevents a team from even attempting the shot that could tie the game. Instead, they’re forced to earn their points at the free-throw line, where they can only get two at most. On paper, it makes perfect sense for the Cavs to foul. But in practice? It can sometimes get messy for Cleveland. And against the Portland Trail Blazers, it nearly unraveled completely.
With Cleveland holding onto a 103-100 lead and just 13 seconds left, Atkinson made his move. He ordered an intentional foul on Anfernee Simons before Portland could set up a potential game-tying three. Simons, an excellent free-throw shooter, calmly sank both attempts.
The Cavs still controlled their fate. All they had to do was make their free throws on the other end to maintain a multi-possession lead. Portland did what any team would do and immediately fouled Darius Garland—one of the best free-throw shooters in the NBA.
And then, the moment everything hinged on, Garland headed to the line.
A single free throw rimmed out, cutting the Cavs’ lead to just two instead of the safety of three. The miss cracked open a door that should have been slammed shut. Instead of being forced into a desperation heave from beyond the arc, the Blazers suddenly had a realistic shot to tie or even win outright.
They took full advantage.
The Trail Blazers seemed happy the Cavs were willing to roll the dice
On Portland’s final possession of regulation, Simons drove into the lane and drew a foul just before the buzzer. This time, the foul wasn’t intentional. It was simply bad luck.
Two more free throws later, the game was tied. Overtime.
It was the exact situation Atkinson’s strategy is designed to prevent. Instead of shutting down Portland’s comeback attempt, the Cavs found themselves fighting for their lives in a game that should have been over.
Despite the scare, Atkinson stood firm in his belief postgame.
“Trust the process,” he said. “And you know, it’s probably on the limit of when you foul—you maybe want the clock down a little bit. I guess the rule is under 10. … But I felt like, because we have a great free throw shooting team … DG is what, 90%? So, we’re playing the numbers there. Usually, he makes two, and we’re off and we win the game. So I don’t regret it.”
This wasn’t the first time Atkinson has pushed the boundaries of the “foul up three” strategy.
Back on December 1, in a game against the Boston Celtics, he applied the same tactic with 11 seconds left on the clock. It worked—but barely. The Cavs were forced to make six straight free throws to survive, and they came dangerously close to a turnover on an inbound pass that could have turned the game on its head.
The difference? They executed perfectly in that game.
Against Portland, a single miss changed everything.
Cleveland is comfortable rolling the dice and fouling whenever tension is high
It’s easy to second-guess the decision in hindsight. Portland, an inexperienced team, had struggled from beyond the arc in the fourth quarter, shooting just 2-of-5 from deep. There was a real argument to be made that forcing them into a contested three-pointer—rather than extending the game through free throws—might have been the smarter play.
Still, Atkinson isn’t one to waver.
He has committed to this strategy, and he’s not backing down now.
The Cavs eventually salvaged the night in overtime, thanks in large part to De’Andre Hunter’s nine-point explosion in the extra frame. But the near-collapse raises questions about the risks involved with Atkinson’s approach.
At its core, the strategy is a bet. One that relies on perfect execution.
Most nights, that means trusting elite free-throw shooters like Garland to knock down both shots and eliminate any drama. But as the Cavs tilt with the Trail Blazers showed, perfection isn’t always a guarantee. And when a single miss can send a game into chaos, it’s fair to wonder if the risk is truly worth the reward.
One thing is certain: Atkinson is willing to roll the dice, finding comfort in being uncomfortable. Like their head coach, the Cavs will live by this philosophy. Now, they just have to make sure they don’t die by it.
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