La Liga rivals face off in UCL play as Real Madrid hosts Atletico Madrid. It is time to continue our Champions League odds series with a Real Madrid-Atletico prediction and pick.
Real Madrid went 5-0-3 in the league phase of UCL play, and would finish in 11th. This would place them in the first round of the knockout phase, and they would face Manchester City. In the first game, they would be down to Manchester City, but would come back to win 3-2. They would then advance on a 6-3 aggregate.
Meanwhile, Atletico Madrid went 6-0-2 in the league phase. That would place them in fifth in the league standings, and a bye into the round of 16. These two teams have faced each other in the Madrid Derby 238 times, with Real Madrid winning 116. Still, the last three fixtures have all been 1-1 draws. Real Madrid has not won since the 2022-23 season in a 2-1 victory.
Here are the Real Madrid-Atletico Champions League odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
Champions League Odds: Real Madrid-Atletico Odds
Real Madrid: -120
Atletico: +330
Draw: +260
Over 2.5 goals: -116
Under 2.5 goals: -106
How to Watch Real Madrid vs. Atletico
Time: 3:00 PM ET/ 12:00 PM PT
TV: Paramount+
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Why Real Madrid Will Win
Real Madrid has scored well this year. They have scored in 37 of 41 total fixtures, scoring 96 goals in the process. That is good for 2.34 goals per game this year. In UCL play, they have scored in eight of ten fixtures and scored 26 goals in the process. That is good for 2.6 goals per game in UCL play. They have been even better at home this year. Real Madrid has scored in all five home games this year, scoring 17 goals in the process. That is good for 3.4 goals per game at home this year.
Kylian Mbappe has led the way for Real Madrid. He has 17 goals with three assists in La Liga play while also scoring seven goals with an assist in UCL play. Vinicius Junior has also been great in UCL play. He has seven goals and two assists on an expected 4.8 goals so far. He has been solid in La Liga play as well, with nine goals and five assists. Finally, Rodrygo has scored four goals on an expected two with two assists in UCL play.
Real Madrid has conceded a fair amount of goals so far in UCL play. They have conceded 15 goals in their ten fixtures. Real Madrid has also given up eight goals in their five home fixtures so far. They also do not have a clean sheet at home yet this year in UCL play.
Why Atletico Will Win
Atletico has scored in 35 of 39 total fixtures this year, scoring 81 goals over the 39 games so far. That is good for 2.08 goals per game so far this year. They have scored 20 goals so far in UCL play, good for 2.5 goals per game in UCL play. They have also been solid on the road scoring in UCL play. They have scored 12 goals over their four road fixtures in UCL play, good for three goals per game.
Julian Alvarez has led the way for Atletico Madrid. He has scored six goals with an assist so far in UCL play while having nine goals and two assists in La Liga play. Further, Antoine Griezmann has been great this year. He has six goals and two assists in UCL play while he has eight goals and five assists in La Liga play. Finally, Alexander Sorloth has nine goals and two assists in La Liga play but does not have a goal or assist in UCL play.
Atletico Madrid has been great on defense this year, allowing 33 total goals over their 39 fixtures. That is good for .85 goals per game overall this year. In UCL play, they have allowed 12 goals over the eight games, good for just 1.5 goals per game. They have allowed six goals on the road this year in UCL play.
Final Real Madrid-Atletico Prediction & Pick
Madrid Derby games have been tight. The last three meetings between these two teams have ended in 1-1 draws. Atletico Madrid has also been the better team as of late between the two, but just slightly. Further, both teams have scored well overall and in UCL play. Both teams have also shown to have defensive implosions. With this being a rivalry game, do not expect a light first leg. With how both teams score, they would easily both score two to three goals, but also could end up scoring just one. That makes the best play in this game, assuming a tight game, and take the draw.
Final Real Madrid-Atletico Prediction & Pick: Draw (+260)
The post Real Madrid vs. Atletico prediction, odds, pick for Champions League 2025 appeared first on ClutchPoints.
