Amid its late-season tournament push, Oregon (20-8) hosts USC (14-14) in its second-to-last home game. It’s time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a USC-Oregon prediction and pick.
Oregon enters the game eighth in the Big 10 with a 9-8 conference record. While mostly inconsistent throughout, the Ducks are riding a four-game win streak into the matchup, most recently including an upset of No. 11-ranked Wisconsin. Jackson Shelstad and Nate Bittle continue to lead the team, averaging 13.3 points per game apiece.
USC trots into the matchup as losers of four straight. While the NCAA tournament is largely out of play, the Trojans can still fight for an NIT bid with three games remaining. They are coming off a narrow 87-82 home loss against Ohio State. Junior Desmond Claude leads them with 16.0 points per game, but it has been sophomore Wesley Yates III leading the team in recent games.
The teams are one of the few who will play each other twice in the Big 10. Oregon won the first matchup, 68-60, in Los Angeles. The gritty affair saw both teams shoot below 40 percent from the field, with just four total players reaching double figures. Shelstad led all scores with 24, while Claude paced the Trojans with 18.
Here are the USC-Oregon College Basketball Odds, courtesy of FanDuel
College Basketball Odds: USC-Oregon Odds
USC: +7.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +270
Oregon: -7.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -345
Over: 150.5 (-110)
Under: 150.5 (-110)
How to Watch USC vs. Oregon
Time: 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT
TV: Big 10 Network
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (Get Access | Save $30)*
Why USC Will Cover The Spread/Win
USC has not been good overall — straight-up or against the spread — but they are surprisingly more efficient on the road than at home. The Trojans are just 7-13 ATS at home but 4-4 ATS on the road. Of those four losses, all four were when they were forced to travel into the Eastern Time Zone. Their two closest road games — against Washington and Nebraska — they managed to win and cover. While Oregon is considerably better than those teams, the schedule has been kinder to USC lately, coming off a Wednesday night home game.
Both USC and Oregon like to play at a slightly elevated pace; the Trojans are actually a touch more efficient. USC is top-40 in both overall field goal percentage and shooting efficiency. It hits 48.7 percent from the field, the 15th-best mark in the country. USC’s primary issue is defense, where they rank 235th in points allowed.
Since beginning Big 10 play, Oregon has been one of the lowest-scoring teams in the league. The Ducks average just 65.5 points per game in their last 10 games. Even on their current win streak, they have only reached 80 points once. USC has been beaten lately by high-scoring offenses, which Oregon has not been.
Why Oregon Will Cover The Spread/Win
After a brutal three-week stretch that ended in early February, Oregon is finding a groove at the right time. The Ducks previously looked lost offensively but are now looking as good as they ever have on the year. They are averaging 78 points per game in their last four games, their most in a four-game stretch in conference play this season. That aligns nicely with a matchup against USC’s atrocious defense.
Allowing the third-most points in the Big 10, USC is allowing 79.2 points per game in its last 10. The matchup should be a confidence-booster for dynamic guard Jackson Shelstad, who is struggling with just 16 total points in the Ducks’ last two games. Shelstad dropped 24 points against USC in December 2024 when these teams first met.
That first game, which was a gritty affair, sets up one of the few conference rematches in the Big 10. The odds of a similar game flow repeating itself are low, particularly with the conflicting momentum each team currently has. USC’s four-game losing streak aside, head coach Eric Musselman has also been complaining about the tough travel schedule. This meeting will be the Trojans’ third game of the week, each requiring a plane trip.
Final USC-Oregon Prediction & Pick
Of the eight road games USC has played this season, all as an underdog, each has gone over the total, hitting at an absurd 100 percent rate. Those kind of numbers are hard to ignore, especially with USC’s continous defensive struggles and Oregon’s recent offensive success.
However, while USC is an even 4-4 against the spread on the road, Oregon is an atrocious 4-10 ATS at home. It is hard to fade Oregon at this present moment, but after a big win over Wisconsin, this is a prime letdown spot against a disappointing USC team. The Ducks have a bigger matchup with Indiana on their senior night just three days later.
Travel has been a big issue for both teams, but particularly USC, this season. The Trojans are 0-5 straight-up/ATS when playing in the Eastern Time Zone. However, they are an improved 11-7 playing in the Pacific Time Zone.
Both teams are trending in opposite directions, but USC has yet to throw in the towel. Following its recent five-point loss to Ohio State, Eric Musselman expressed obvious anger at his team’s poor defensive effort. He vowed they be better against Oregon. The Trojans are currently 15th in the Big 10, currently the last team qualifying for the upcoming conference tournament.
Final USC-Oregon Prediction & Pick: USC +7.5 (-102), Over 150.5 (-110)
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