Generally speaking, the New York Knicks are in fine shape. They are currently in third-place in the Eastern Conference, and they don’t even have their former starting center, Mitchell Robinson, back from an injury he suffered in last season’s playoffs. Still, major cracks are beginning to show. Namely, New York has failed to live up to expectations against the best teams in the league. And considering the last two losses, with the most recent coming against the Boston Celtics, this could become a major problem in just a few months.
New York has failed miserably against the top-three teams in the league so far this year. They are a combined 0-7 this season against the Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, and Oklahoma City Thunder. They’ve recently lost back-to-back games against the Celtics and Cavaliers. And all seven losses add up to an aggregate 141 points point differential, or an average loss of 20 points per game. That’s a major problem.
Knicks still have depth needs, even when factoring in Mitchell Robinson’s return
Let’s be entirely clear, there is plenty of blame to go around. First, the Knicks’ lack meaningful depth. Robinson’s return will probably help in this capacity. But he can’t be expected to hit the ground running after missing such a long stretch of action.
And sure, Miles McBride offers a nice scoring punch. But there is major positional overlap with Jalen Brunson, who is obviously paramount to the team’s success. And McBride is too small to play significant minutes at shooting guard against bigger opponents. So, there’s a ceiling on his impact.
Beyond Robinson and McBride, the team’s reserves aren’t cutting it. Precious Achiuwa, Cameron Payne, and Landry Shamet are some combination of playing out of position, past their primes, unacclimated to playing a regular role, and/or inconsistent. But it’s not their fault. These players are simply being asked to do more than they’re generally capable of.
Now, it’s important to note that New York is well-built for a run next season. But they need time to build their bench. And after failing to put forth a truly competitive roster for so long, fans are becoming increasingly impatient and untrusting.
Can Tom Thibodeau adjust, and how much is he to blame?
Head coach Tom Thibodeau is complicit as well, but it’s less clear exactly how much. Sure, he plays his starters a lot, but as noted above, there isn’t a lot of depth to support the starters, so it’s hard to blame him for leaning on his top players.
Thibodeau’s blame is about more than how much he plays his starters. It’s about Xs and Os. One supporting figure has to do with opponent three-point percentage. Specifically, the Knicks are dead last in the NBA in opponent three-point percentage (38.1%). Opponent three-point shooting is partially schemes and partially personnel, hence the confusion regarding Thibs.
On the one hand, Knicks’ defenders get beat off the dribble on the perimeter, which forces off-ball defenders to come in and help. That leads to a pass to the help defender’s man, and another defensive rotation leaves three-point shooters open at the arc. Objectively, that’s more about personnel.
But the schemes part has to do with the team’s inability to adjust, and that’s all Thibodeau.
At some point, New York has to acclimate to what’s happening on the floor. And that’s where a great defensive mind like Thibodeau should be able to adjust. But instead, New York is stuck repeating the same mistakes.
Will Tom Thibodeau survive the season?
This is a chicken and the egg situation. If the team’s reserves aren’t capable of playing bigger roles, then Thibodeau has to play his starters longer minutes. If he plays his starters too many minutes, they become worn down and lose effectiveness. So, this season looks increasingly like a learning opportunity. And hopefully, it’s one that Thibodeau can grow from. But if not, Knicks’ fans won’t be too upset if Thibodeau becomes the team’s Mark Jackson-esque fall guy, leading to a dominant run under its version of Steve Kerr.
The Knicks have ample time remaining to prove themselves and build momentum before entering the playoffs. However, there are two specific games on which they should be hyper-focused: April 8 against Boston and April 11 against Cleveland.
Granted, Boston and Cleveland will probably have their respective playoff spots set by April. But the Knicks should demand big wins of themselves in their remaining matchups with the top-two teams in the East. They’re statement games, and New York is in desperate need of positive statements.
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